Kurwisana kuri kuwedzera pakati peRussia neUkraine kwarova zvakanyanya pamusika wepasi rose.Nyika dzakawanda dziri kuwedzera zvirango zvakatemerwa Russia munyaya dzezvemari uye zvirango izvi zvinogona kusvika kuchikamu chemagetsi.Nekuda kweizvozvo, mitengo yemafuta asina kuchena uye gasi rechisikigo yakakwira munguva pfupi yapfuura.Musi waKurume 3, Brent crude oil remangwana rinokwira kusvika pamadhora zana negumi nematanhatu/bbl, hutsva hutsva kubvira Sep 2013;uye WTI crude remangwana inofambira mberi kusvika kumadhora zana negumi netatu/bbl, inozorodza gumi-yakakwirira.Mutengo wegasi rechisikigo muEurope wakakwira ne60% musi waKurume 2, uchisvika kurekodha.
Kubva 2021, mutengo wegasi remuEurope wave uchikwira zvakanyanya, uchikwira kubva pa19.58 EUR/MWh mukutanga kwegore kusvika pa180.68 EUR/MWh kubva muna Zvita 21, 2021.
Mutengo wacho wakakwidziridzwa nekushaikwa kwezvinhu.90% yegasi rechisikigo rinowanikwa muEurope rinotsamira pakutenga kunze kwenyika, uye Russia ndiyo mavambo makuru ekupa gasi rechisikigo kuEurope.Muna 2020, EU yakaunza kunze kwenyika inenge 152.65 bhiriyoni m3 yegasi rechisikigo kubva kuRussia, 38% yezvose zvinotengeswa kunze kwenyika;uye gasi rechisikigo rakabva kuRussia rakaita ingangoita 30% yekushandiswa kwese.
Nekuwedzera kwekunetsana kweRussia-Ukraine, Germany svondo rapfuura yakamisa kubvumidzwa kweNord Stream 2 pombi yegasi yechisikigo.Mutungamiri weUS, Biden akazivisawo zvirango zvinopesana neNord Stream 2 pombi chirongwa.Mukuwedzera, imwe pombi muUkraine yakakuvadzwa kubva pakakakavadzana.Nekuda kweizvozvo, kunetseka nezve gasi remusikirwo kupihwa kwakawedzera, zvichikonzera kukwira kwakanyanya kwemutengo.
Methanol zvidyarwa kunze kweChina zvese zvakavakirwa pagasi rechisikigo se feedstock.Kubva muna Chikumi 2021, zvimwe zvidyarwa zvemethanol kuGermany neNetherlands zvakazivisa kumisa kugadzirwa sezvo mutengo wechisikigo wakanyanya kukwira uyo wakawedzera kakawanda kubva padanho gore rapfuura.
Methanol zvirimwa muEurope
| Mugadziri | Kugona (kt/gore) | Mamiriro ekushanda |
| Bioethanol (Netherlands) | 1000 | Kuvhara pakati paChikumi 2021 |
| BioMCN (Netherlands) | 780 | Kumhanya zvakadzikama |
| Statoil/Equinor (Norway) | 900 | Kumhanya kwakadzikama, chirongwa chekugadzirisa muna Chivabvu-Chikumi |
| BP (Germany) | 285 | Kuvhara mukupera kwaNdira 2022 nekuda kwehunyanzvi nyaya |
| Mider Helm (Germany) | 660 | Kumhanya zvakadzikama |
| Shell (Germany) | 400 | Kumhanya zvakadzikama |
| BASF (Germany) | 330 | Shut mukutanga Jun 2021 |
| Total | 4355 |
Parizvino, methanol huwandu hunosvika 4.355 miriyoni matani / gore muEurope, inoverengera 2.7% yepasi rose.Kudiwa kwemethanol kwakasvika matani 9 miriyoni muEurope muna 2021 uye pamusoro pe50% yemethanol yaivimba nekutenga kunze kwenyika.Mabviro makuru aipa methanol kuEurope aive Middle East, North America neRussia (akaverengera 18% yeEuropean methanol kunze kwenyika).
Methanol yakabuda muRussia yakasvika mamiriyoni matatu ematani pagore, mamiriyoni 1.5 matani ayo akatumirwa kuEurope.Kana kupihwa kwemethanol kubva kuRussia kwakamiswa, musika weEurope unogona kutarisana nekurasikirwa kwekupa kwe120-130kt pamwedzi.Uye kana kugadzirwa kwemethanol muRussia kukanganisika, kupihwa kwemethanol pasi rose kungakanganiswa.
Nguva pfupi yadarika, nezvirango zvakatemerwa, kutengeserana methanol muEurope kwave kushanda neFOB Rotterdam methanol mutengo uchikwira zvakanyanya, uchikwira 12% musi waKurume 2.
Nekupokana kusingazogadzirike munguva pfupi, musika weEurope unogona kunge uri pasi pekunetsekana nekushaikwa kwegasi rechisikigo mukati uye kwenguva refu.Methanol zvidyarwa muEurope zvinogona kukanganiswa nekukwanisa kudhura nemutengo wegasi chaiwo spiking.FOB Rotterdam methanol mutengo unotarisirwa kuramba uchikwira, uye mitoro yakawanda inogona kuyerera kubva kuMiddle East neNorth America ichienda kuEurope kana arbitrage yapararira.Nekuda kweizvozvo, methanol mitoro yevasiri veIran mabviro kuenda kuChina yaizodzikira.Pamusoro pezvo, neiyo arbitrage yakavhurika, China inotumirazve methanol kuEurope inogona kuwedzera.Methanol kuChina yakambotarisirwa kuve yakakwana, asi mamiriro ezvinhu anogona kuchinja.
Nekudaro, nemutengo wemethanol uchikwira, zvidyarwa zveMTO zvakaderera zvinotambura nekurasikirwa kukuru muChina.Naizvozvo, kudiwa kwemethanol kunogona kukanganiswa uye methanol mutengo wekuwana unogona kuvharwa.
Nguva yekutumira: Mar-17-2022